Guidance to develop a tourism demand forecasting model for Portugal

Oecd

No 2025/10, OECD Tourism Papers from OECD Publishing

Abstract: This paper presents a feasibility assessment to support Portugal in developing and piloting an international tourism demand-forecasting model. It provides a review of seven types of forecasting methods based on relevant strengths and limitations including data needs, accuracy, complexity, nonlinearity, events, and interpretation, as well as an overview of experiences and good practices in selected peer countries. It then assesses these methods and practices against the needs and available resources in Portugal, finally proposing a forecasting system that can meet Portugal’s needs along with recommended implementation actions based on good practices from peer countries.

Keywords: forecasting; international tourism; model; Portugal; tourism; tourism demand (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L83 Z32 Z33 Z38 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-05-30
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oec:cfeaab:2025/10-en

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