Miracle or Myth? Assessing the macroeconomic productivity gains from Artificial Intelligence

Francesco Filippucci, Peter Gal and Matthias Schief

No 29, OECD Artificial Intelligence Papers from OECD Publishing

Abstract: The paper studies the expected macroeconomic productivity gains from Artificial Intelligence (AI) over a 10-year horizon. It builds a novel micro-to-macro framework by combining existing estimates of micro-level performance gains with evidence on the exposure of activities to AI and likely future adoption rates, relying on a multi-sector general equilibrium model with input-output linkages to aggregate the effects. Its main estimates for annual aggregate total-factor productivity growth due to AI range between 0.25-0.6 percentage points (0.4-0.9 pp. for labour productivity). The paper discusses the role of various channels in shaping these macro-level gains and highlights several policy levers to support AI's growth-enhancing effects.

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Productivity; Technology adoption (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E1 O3 O4 O5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-11-22
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ain, nep-eff, nep-ino, nep-sbm and nep-tid
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oec:comaaa:29-en

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