The changing dynamics in global metal markets: How the energy transition and geo-fragmentation may disrupt commodity prices

Hugh Miller and Juan-Pablo Martinez

No 258, OECD Environment Working Papers from OECD Publishing

Abstract: The energy transition and the rise in trade restrictions driven by geo-fragmentation present significant risks to critical mineral markets. This paper examines a subset of essential transition-critical minerals—aluminium, cobalt, copper, lithium and nickel—to assess how these markets may be impacted by shifting global economic dynamics. Through a three-fold analysis, the study explores the key drivers of commodity price formation, the medium-term effects of trade interventions on price expectations, and the short-term volatility triggered by trade announcements. The findings and discussion focus on the risks to the energy transition and financial markets.

Keywords: commodity markets; critical minerals; energy transition; geo-fragmentation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 L71 Q02 Q41 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-04-10
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oec:envaaa:258-en

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