The future of Chinese and South-East Asian migration to OECD countries

Geoffrey Ducanes and Manolo Abella

OECD Journal: General Papers, 2010, vol. 2009, issue 4, 7-29

Abstract: CHINA and the Philippines are among the top 10 main sending countries to OECD countries. Population growth is still high in the Philippines, which will likely exert strong pressure for emigration if economic opportunities in the country do not keep up. In China and Indonesia population growth has been reduced to replacement or below replacement levels, thereby reducing future emigration pressure. Recent economic success, if continued, would likely reduce emigration on condition that in China the distribution of benefits from its economic growth is more equitable; that Indonesia is able to generate more employment-intensive economic growth; and that the Philippines is able to extricate itself from its long history of boom-bust economic growth. There are pockets of ethnic unrest that are currently mainly dormant, but should they escalate, they will most likely have an impact on emigration to nearby countries. A large portion of the population in the region lives in coastal areas, making them vulnerable to the negative impacts associated with climate change.

Date: 2010
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