A Fiscal Impact Measure for Austria

Mathias Moser () and Lukas Reiss ()
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Mathias Moser: Oesterreichische Nationalbank
Lukas Reiss: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Analysis Division

OeNB Bulletin, 2025, issue Q2/25-2, 16

Abstract: This study introduces a Fiscal Impact Measure (FIM) based on a novel framework for assessing how discretionary fiscal policies influence GDP growth in Austria. By decomposing revenue and expenditure components, we quantify fiscal impulses relative to rule-based neutral benchmarks, integrating category-specific multipliers from the Austrian Quarterly Model (AQM). Our analysis reveals that fiscal policy largely followed a countercyclical pattern from 1996 to 2020, with consolidation phases post-2009 and expansive responses during the 2008 financial crisis. In contrast, the COVID-19 pandemic led to massive health-related expenditure and energy subsidies that created procyclical stimuli during 2021 and 2022 and a restrictive stance during the 2024 downturn. Our results indicate that household taxes/transfers and public consumption drove a large part of growth impacts historically. The FIM’s granular approach highlights how fiscal rules and crisis responses contribute to macroeconomic outcomes. It thus serves as a tool for policymakers to forecast growth effects amidst evolving EU fiscal governance.

Keywords: fiscal policy; stimulus; consolidation; fiscal multipliers (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E60 H60 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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