BREWING DISCONTENT: How U.S. Reciprocal Tariffs on Coffee Could Echo the Boston Tea Party

Muhammad Sukri Bin Ramli

No 75tcd_v1, OSF Preprints from Center for Open Science

Abstract: This research employs quantitative techniques interpreted through relevant economic theories to analyze a proposed U.S. "Discounted Reciprocal Tariff" structure. Statistical modeling (linear regression) quantifies the policy's consistent 'discounted reciprocity' pattern, which is interpreted using a Game Theory perspective on strategic interaction. Machine learning (K-Means clustering) identifies distinct country typologies based on tariff exposure and Economic Complexity Index (ECI), linking the policy to Economic Complexity theory. The study's primary application focuses on the major coffee exporting sector, utilizing simulation modeling grounded in principles of demand elasticity and substitution to project potential trade flow impacts. Specifically, for coffee, this simulation demonstrates how the proposed tariff differentials can induce significant substitution effects, projecting a potential shift in U.S. import demand away from high-tariff origins toward lower-tariff competitors. This disruption, stemming from the tariffs impacting exporting countries, is projected to ultimately increase coffee prices for consumers in the United States. Findings throughout are contextualized within Political Economy considerations. Overall, the study demonstrates how integrating regression, clustering, and simulation with economic theory—exemplified through the coffee sector analysis—provides a robust framework for assessing the potential systemic impacts, including consumer price effects, of strategic trade policies.

Date: 2025-04-02
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://osf.io/download/67ee931fcdf7213cc382997e/

Related works:
Working Paper: Brewing Discontent: How U.S. Reciprocal Tariffs on Coffee Could Echo the Boston Tea Party (2025)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:osfxxx:75tcd_v1

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/75tcd_v1

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in OSF Preprints from Center for Open Science
Bibliographic data for series maintained by OSF ().