Forecasting rural depopulation in Spain

Miguel González-Leonardo

No hjp4z, OSF Preprints from Center for Open Science

Abstract: Population projections and forecasts below the regional level are widely used by governments for spatial planning, including service provision and infrastructure. However, projections and forecasts are often produced only at national and regional scales. In this paper, I use autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to forecast the rural population size of the 50 Spanish provinces up to 2040. The results predict that the rural population in Spain will remain around 8 million inhabitants until 2024, but 25 out of 50 provinces will experience rural population shrinkage, particularly those in Northwest Spain. For instance, Ourense, Zamora, and León are forecasted to lose more than 30% of the rural population. Additionally, depopulation is expected to accelerate across provinces affected by rural population shrinkage.

Date: 2025-01-18
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:osfxxx:hjp4z

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/hjp4z

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