Modelling the impact of lower speed limits on residential streets for cyclist level of traffic stress and car travel time in Greater Melbourne

Afshin Jafari, Steve Pemberton, Sapan Tiwari, Tayebeh Saghapour, Nikhil Chand, Belen Zapata-Diomedi and Billie Giles-Corti

No np64v_v1, OSF Preprints from Center for Open Science

Abstract: Reducing speed limits to create safer, lower-stress environments for cyclists is a widely proposed policy but often faces resistance due to concerns about increased travel times. This study evaluates these concerns by assessing Level of Traffic Stress (LTS) under existing speed limits (base scenario) and the effects of reducing residential street speed limits to 40 km/h and 30 km/h (alternative scenarios) on cycling and car travel time. LTS is a widely used measure of cycling stress, categorizing road segments from LTS-1 (least stressful) to LTS-4 (most stressful). We assigned LTS values to all road segments in Greater Melbourne based on cycling infrastructure, road hierarchy, traffic volume, and speed limits from OpenStreetMap. Trips from a government travel survey were then routed through the network to estimate exposure to different LTS levels under base and alternative scenarios. Additionally, a mode choice model was developed to examine the impact of LTS exposure on cycling likelihood. Finally, an agent-based transport model was used to evaluate car travel time impacts. Results showed significant reductions in high-LTS exposure with lower speed limits. Under the base case, 27.9% of routes were on LTS-1 roads and at 30 km/h, this increased to 63.3%. Mode choice analysis confirmed a strong negative correlation between cycling likelihood and high-LTS exposure. Car travel time impacts were minimal, even for trips largely on residential streets the average was only one minute. These findings suggest that reducing speed limits on residential streets can substantially improve cycling conditions with negligible effects on motorized traffic.

Date: 2025-01-30
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:osfxxx:np64v_v1

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/np64v_v1

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