Affective polarisation in CSES Module 6: a replication pipeline and an exploratory test of GenAI occupational exposure

Paulina Lenik

No 4jf2m_v1, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: This note makes the Reiljan Affective Polarization Index (API) available for CSES Module 6 elections and documents the pipeline that produces it. To our knowledge, as of October 2026, no published work reports API values from Module 6. We replicate published API scores to within 0.000002 (about six significant figures) for 12 elections (2007–2017) in ten countries that are covered by Reiljan et al.’s replication data, compute the index for eight Module 6 elections (five with usable occupation codes) held in 2022–24, and link party-level populism codes from PopuList 4.0 through Party Facts and ParlGov identifiers. As a demonstration, we test whether voters in occupations more exposed to generative AI are more or less affectively polarised, using five studies. Exposure is negatively associated with individual-level API (−0.135 per SD, p = .003), but the estimate falls to −0.082 (p = .27) with ISCO major-group fixed effects. The association with voting for populist parties behaves similarly (−3.1 pp, p = .004; −1.4 pp, p = .31 with ISCO major-group fixed effects). The exposure × populist interaction is not distinguishable from zero (p = .13). Only the far-right vote estimate stays below p = .05 with fixed effects, and it does not in the extended sample. We treat these results as a transparent null from an exploratory design, not as evidence of a causal mechanism. Code and aggregate scores are deposited on Zenodo.

Date: 2026-10-18
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:4jf2m_v1

DOI: 10.31235/osf.io/4jf2m_v1

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