Climate Change and Sustainable Development in Tunisia: Analyzing Environmental Pressures and Adaptation ChallengesThrough Multi-Decadal Data (1960–2025)

Bochra Hadj Kilani

No a6g2u_v1, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: Tunisia, a semi-arid Mediterranean country, faces increasing climate-related pressures linked to water scarcity, agricultural instability, rapid urbanization, and limited environmental adaptation. Despite growing concern over climate vulnerability in North Africa, integrated long-term assessments of the relationship between environmental stress and sustainable development remain limited. This study analyzes multi-decadal trends from 1960 to 2025 using 15 standardized indicators from World Bank Open Data covering water resources, agriculture, energy transition, urbanization, coastal exposure, and environmental protection. The analysis combines descriptive trend evaluation with OLS regression, Mann–Kendall tests, and Sen’s slope estimation to identify major structural changes across sectors. The results reveal four major trends. First, freshwater withdrawals increased dramatically, reaching over 90% of internal renewable resources by 2022, placing Tunisia among the world’s most water-stressed countries. Second, agricultural systems remain highly vulnerable, characterized by declining arable land and strong cereal-yield volatility linked to rainfall variability. Third, rapid urbanization has concentrated population and infrastructure in low-elevation coastal zones exposed to sea-level rise and storm surges. Fourth, adaptation efforts remain insufficient, with limited renewable-electricity deployment and protected-area coverage remaining below international targets. The findings highlight a growing “climate–development nexus” in which resource depletion, environmental vulnerability, and slow adaptation interact through reinforcing pressures. The study identifies urgent priorities for integrated water governance, renewable-energy expansion, coastal-risk management, and ecosystem protection, directly supporting SDGs 6, 11, 13, and 15. More broadly, the Tunisian case provides an instructive framework for understanding climate-development challenges across semi-arid Mediterranean and MENA countries.

Date: 2026-05-29
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:a6g2u_v1

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/a6g2u_v1

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