The party politics of European integration: Explaining conditionality and solidarity in times of crisis

Gianmarco Fifi

No bp6qa_v1, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: How does the European Union (EU) manage to deepen integration amid recurring crises? While existing literature on crisis management and resilience in Europe emphasizes institutional mechanisms, it often overlooks the critical role of domestic political coalitions in enabling two-level bargaining during crises. This paper builds a theory of how conditionality and solidarity alternate through crises. It conceptualizes a sequential two-level game approach to the politics of crisis management in the EU. Domestically, pro-European parties strive to balance responsibility towards the EU with promises of benefits at the national level. This takes different forms in Northern and Southern countries. In order to justify cross-country solidarity in the North, federalists need to ensure a certain level of oversight and conditionality on the use of the resources transferred. Such level of oversight acts as a constraint for pro-EU parties in Southern countries, which while endorsing it need to convince their electorate that cooperation will result in higher levels of welfare guaranteed by the EU. This approach offers a way to understand the differentiated trade-offs that pro-European political parties must navigate in different member states. What, then, explains variations in the levels of solidarity between different crises? The second part of my framework suggests that policy paradigms have `diminishing returns', whereby previous crisis management failures constrain future policies. The paper suggests that the temporal dimension of crises succession matters, in as much as previous crisis management can either discourage new acts of solidarity or swing national debates towards social protection, given the diminishing returns of previous policy paradigms and the process of learning through crises. As welfare enhancements promised by European integration fail to be perceived by citizens, anti-Europeanism rises in Southern countries. Conversely, widespread solidarity not compensated by equally evident acts of responsibilization of member states lead to increases in Nordic countries' anti-EU sentiments. This theory is tested through an analysis of parliamentary debates during recent periods of crisis.

Date: 2026-10-19
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:bp6qa_v1

DOI: 10.31235/osf.io/bp6qa_v1

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