Informational Power and Institutional Design: When a Hegemon May Choose Consensus

Manoel Galdino
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Manoel Galdino: Universidade de São Paulo

No ca8vj_v1, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: When and why would a hegemon prefer consensus to majority rule in an international organization? I argue that consensus can be a technology of hegemonic power rather than a constraint upon it. In a formal model, a hegemon privately observes the value of cooperation and uses Bayesian persuasion to influence weaker states' entry decisions. Under majority rule, weak states can bypass the hegemon, eliminating any screening problem. Under unanimity, weak states must include the hegemon in every bargaining coalition without knowing its type, creating a screening cutoff at which their behavior changes discretely. This generates an upward jump in the hegemon's value function---a non-convexity that Bayesian persuasion exploits. The institutional comparison has a single-crossing property: there is a unique prior threshold, in closed form, above which the hegemon prefers unanimity and below which majority can dominate by making entry easier. The mechanism reframes institutional design as a trade-off between informational leverage under unanimity and easier participation under majority, providing a distributive explanation for consensus rules in organizations like the GATT/WTO.

Date: 2026-04-23
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-des and nep-mic
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:ca8vj_v1

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/ca8vj_v1

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