Seeing Uncertainty: An Eye-tracking Study on how Civil Servants read and use Uncertainty Information

Wouter Lammers, Eva Puimège, Valérie Pattyn and Steven Van de Walle

No cpyra_v1, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: Civil servants often have to make decisions supported by uncertain information, yet it remains unclear how they prioritize different types of uncertainty. We distinguish shallow, quantified uncertainty from deep, ambiguous uncertainty. Ambiguity aversion suggests that shallow uncertainty information will distract attention away from deep uncertainty information, potentially leading to overconfident decisions. This eye-tracking study investigates how civil servants read and use deep and shallow uncertainty information regarding a procurement decision. Contrary to expectations, we find that shallow uncertainty does not distract from deep uncertainty but boosts concentration towards it. The presence of shallow uncertainty impacts decision-making but not decision confidence.

Date: 2025-10-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-neu and nep-upt
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:cpyra_v1

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/cpyra_v1

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