The Value of Forecast Improvements: Evidence from Advisory Lead Times and Vehicle Crashes

Vaibhav Anand

No hdpga, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: Advances in predictive technologies are improving forecasts of risk, but do better forecasts result in better risk management? Using data on winter forecasts and vehicle crashes from 11 states in the US, I investigate the value of improvements in forecast lead times. I show that winter advisories with longer lead times reduce crashes significantly, even when they are less accurate than advisories with shorter lead times. These benefits come from both the individual and institutional response to advisory lead times. When advisories arrive earlier, people visit fewer places, and snowplow crews increase the intensity of road maintenance operations.

Date: 2001-01-01
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://osf.io/download/63b852b9202f170ad2a6b2d9/

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:hdpga

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/hdpga

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in SocArXiv from Center for Open Science
Bibliographic data for series maintained by OSF ().