Global fuel shocks as catalysts of sustainable travel behaviour change

Lauren Pearson, Ana Luiza Santos Sa de, Robyn Gerhard, Jamie Abrahams, Hossein Nosratzadeh, Toby Cumming and Ben Beck

No hgx9d_v1, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: A sharp rise in fuel prices in March 2026 created a potential window for sustainable travel behaviour change in Australia. Yet who is positioned to change how they travel remains poorly understood. A population-representative online survey of 2,177 Australian adults, conducted in April 2026, captured pre-crisis travel behaviour, mode shift considerations, and conditions supporting sustained change. Explainable machine learning (XGBoost, SHAP, supervised k-means clustering) identified amenable subgroups for walking, cycling, e-bikes, and public transport. Three quarters of respondents had changed or considered changing their travel behaviour. Walking was the most commonly adopted new mode (20%), and travel avoidance the most common adaptation (41%). Financial hardship and younger age were dominant predictors of amenability. Supervised clustering revealed three recurrent archetypes - financially pressured young adults, employed urban professionals, and regional residents lacking service access. Realising equitable sustainable travel outcomes requires transport systems offering affordable, safe alternatives to all population groups.

Date: 2026-05-21
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:hgx9d_v1

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/hgx9d_v1

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