The Illusion of Precision: Interpreting International Rankings Within Their Measurement Limits

Milos Kankaras

No mbgxs_v1, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: International rankings publish precise country positions. We ask which comparisons the evidence behind five of them supports, by reproducing published tables, optimising weights, applying multiplicity-adjusted rank inference and two source checks, within a framework separating invalid measurement, insufficient validation, normative trade-offs, underrepresentation of uncertainty and misleading communication. In every programme the adjacent ordering is unsupported, each for a different reason: Report Card 19 trades off dimensions in all 35 adjacent pairs; World Happiness Report countries move a median of 30 places when affect replaces life evaluation; 23 of 38 countries can lead the Better Life Index under unrestricted weights; retrospective rescoring moves Global Health Security Index countries a median of seven places within one year; only 4 of 80 adjacent PISA pairs are distinguishable. Broad contrasts survive throughout. Two unrepresented uncertainties are documented: rotated administration behind Report Card 19's social-skills indicator, and unlinked assessment vintages behind the Human Capital Index.

Date: 2026-09-12
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:mbgxs_v1

DOI: 10.31235/osf.io/mbgxs_v1

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