The Road Violence Toll of Urban Sprawl: A Registered Report of Collisions with Cyclists and Pedestrians in England and Wales

Jose Pina-Sánchez, Caroline Tait, Roger Beecham and Juan Fonseca Zamora
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Jose Pina-Sánchez: University of Leeds

No skcfr_v2, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: The risk of road collision for cyclists and pedestrians is higher in sprawls than in city centres. As a result of commuting, we also suspect that the higher risk of collision caused by residents from car-dependent sprawls is not confined to their own areas but disproportionately imposed on city dwellers. However, due to the absence of direct comparisons we do not know the specific road violence imposed by urban sprawls. This registered report will combine collision data from the Department for Transport and the Urban Grammar Spatial Signatures dataset that characterises geography by form and function to estimate the share of road violence induced by sprawls’ residents within and outside their localities, and relative to levels of road violence generated by city dwellers in England and Wales. Furthermore, using the subset of collisions data including contributory factors, we will provide a lower bound estimate regarding the share of collisions that could be classified as motoring offences. Drawing on these findings we will reassess the widely held beliefs of: i) sprawls as safer than city centres; ii) residents from urban sprawls are more law-abiding than city dwellers; and iii) crime prevention strategies that promote car-dependent developments as effective.

Date: 2026-06-07
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:skcfr_v2

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/skcfr_v2

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