The Gender Pay Gap and the Child Tax Credit: Credit Eligibility and Unexplained Differences in Mothers’ and Fathers’ Earnings (Working Paper)

Sophie Collyer and Christopher Yera

No szjg8_v1, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: One of the most striking differences in eligibility for the full Child Tax Credit (CTC) is by family type (female and male heads of household and two-parent, married households). Differences in the wages of working mothers and fathers unexplained by key wage predictors can help explain these disparities. This paper explores the interactions between unexplained gender wage gaps and full CTC eligibility using data from the 2025 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS-ASEC). We examine CTC eligibility across the earned income distribution by family type, estimate how much of the wage gap is unexplained by key wage predictors, simulate counterfactual wages and earnings for all working mothers absent this unexplained gap, and recalculate their families’ CTC. Findings suggest that unexplained differences in the wages of working mothers and fathers leave roughly 1.7 million mothers and 2.9 million children ineligible for the full CTC.

Date: 2026-09-07
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:szjg8_v1

DOI: 10.31235/osf.io/szjg8_v1

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