India’s Economic Crossroads: Growth, Inequality, Dependency, and the Road Ahead

Devraj Singh
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Devraj Singh: Wellith A.I.

No tvfyn_v1, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: India has re‑emerged as one of the world’s fastest‑growing large economies, yet persistent concerns about job quality, inequality, and strategic dependence raise doubts about how far headline growth translates into durable development. This paper asks whether India can convert high growth into inclusive, job‑rich, and strategically resilient development in a frontier‑technology era defined by AI, semiconductors, digital public infrastructure, and advanced defence and data‑centre technologies. Using a secondary‑data, mixed‑methods design, the study combines national time series, a state‑year panel, and trade and energy‑dependence indicators constructed from official Indian sources (MoSPI, RBI, NITI Aayog, PPAC, TradeStat, NPCI) and major international databases (World Bank, IMF, WID). The analysis documents that while real output and fiscal‑backed investment have risen strongly, labour reallocation into high‑productivity manufacturing and modern services remains incomplete, so growth has been output‑rich but only partially employment‑rich across most states. Official consumption data show substantial poverty reduction, but inequality remains high and multi‑dimensional, with rising top‑end concentration and enduring gaps by state, caste, gender, and employment type. External vulnerability is concentrated in oil, electronics, and advanced hardware and software inputs, even as digital public infrastructure and frontier‑tech sectors deepen. The paper argues that India’s long‑run challenge is not growth per se but the political‑economy task of aligning structural transformation, capability‑building, and technology‑era industrial and social policy so that high growth yields broad‑based mobility, lower strategic dependence, and stronger, more even state capacity.

Date: 2026-06-28
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:tvfyn_v1

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/tvfyn_v1

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