Perceived accessibility components and travel behavior: a causal inference framework for assessing behavioral models

Matheus Fontenelle Siqueira, Carlos Felipe Grangeiro Loureiro and João de Abreu e Silva

No tz7k5_v1, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: The evolution of urban planning paradigms has shifted travel demand modeling from predictive, supply-oriented approaches to frameworks centered on accessibility and the interdependence of urban subsystems. While these advances have enhanced the behavioral and forecasting capabilities of transport models, significant methodological gaps persist, particularly in identifying causal mechanisms and addressing endogeneity. Most behavioral models rely on observational data and lack a rigorous framework to distinguish causal relationships from spurious associations, which undermines the interpretability of estimated parameters. This paper addresses these limitations by proposing a conceptual and methodological framework grounded in causal inference theory. First, a conceptual model of travel behavior is developed, organizing key determinants, such as location choices, activity participation, perceived accessibility, individual restrictions, and subjective influences, into an integrated structure. Second, a methodological framework based on the principles of modern causal inference theory is introduced, emphasizing the importance of explicit assumptions, identification strategies, and the control of biases, such as omitted variables and self-selection effects. The framework treats perceived accessibility as the mechanism through which activity and locational decisions shape travel behavior, and subjective influences (attitudes, preferences, and habits) as common causes of both decisions and perceptions. It is then applied to behavioral modeling studies of the activity and land-use subsystems, identifying the back-door paths left open by each study's controls. Two findings stand out: without measured attitudes, the total effects of activity and locational decisions are not identifiable, because attitudes also shape the perceived accessibility that mediates them; and measuring perceived accessibility components separately allows disentangling the direct and indirect effects on travel behavior.

Date: 2026-10-19
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:tz7k5_v1

DOI: 10.31235/osf.io/tz7k5_v1

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