Pattern Recognition of Critical Mineral Copper in Global Trade Data

Muhammad Sukri Bin Ramli

No v53nw_v1, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: The global copper market is experiencing a period of fundamental structural volatility, guided by supply chain realignments, geopolitical friend-shoring, and an increasing reliance on the circular economy. To accurately diagnose the current state of this critical mineral, this paper presents a strictly empirical, data-driven algorithmic pipeline, the Apex Empirical Model, applied to recent UN Comtrade transaction ledgers (2020-2025). By utilizing robust machine learning architectures, this research systematically identifies a phenomenon we term Stage-Specific Starvation (SSS) across the upstream, midstream, circular, and downstream stages of the value chain. Integrating Deep Autoencoders, Network Graph Analysis, Holt-Winters Time-Series Forecasting, and Risk-Parity Optimization, the model successfully isolates targeted capital flight via transfer mispricing and maps the exact flow-through volumes of global transshipment hubs. Furthermore, the framework applies network topology to assess systemic vulnerabilities, empirically confirming the existence of a geopolitical price premium, and engineers a continuous mass-balance metric to predict projected smelter capacity adjustments six months into the future. Finally, our resilience metrics mathematically prove the financial arbitrage and stability advantages of secondary scrap integration. Ultimately, this research leverages Causal Inference to introduce Circular Risk Parity (CRP), providing a prescriptive, optimized portfolio allocation that balances risk equally across the supply chain, allowing stakeholders to navigate exogenous supply shocks in the modern copper market.

Date: 2026-03-26
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:v53nw_v1

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/v53nw_v1

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