Beyond Decline: Diagnosing the Resilience Crisis in UK Grassroots Music Venues Through Social-Ecological Systems Analysis, 2014–2025

Mike McLeod

No wxyke_v1, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: The UK grassroots music venue sector faces an existential crisis, with venue numbers declining from 960 in 2014 to 810 by 2025, representing a 16% contraction over just eleven years. Whilst sector-specific reports document this decline through economic metrics and policy analyses, such fragmented approaches obscure the systemic nature of the crisis. This paper applies Ostrom's Social-Ecological Systems (SES) framework to integrate longitudinal data from Music Venue Trust annual reports (2014–2025), parliamentary inquiries, and case studies into a comprehensive diagnosis of system vulnerability. The analysis reveals that venue fragility emerges not from isolated market failures but from cross-subsystem interactions: insecure property rights (93% tenancy with 18-month average leases) interact with gentrification pressures and noise complaint enforcement to create reinforcing feedback loops driving accelerating decline. Two critical feedback mechanisms are quantified: (1) a gentrification death spiral where cultural venues attract residents, raising property values and rents until venues close, eliminating the cultural amenity; and (2) an arena substitution effect where venue loss reduces touring route viability, concentrating performances in large venues and further eroding grassroots revenue. System dynamics modelling projects critical thresholds: below approximately 700 venues, regional touring becomes unviable; below 600 venues, the national touring circuit collapses entirely. The sector approaches these thresholds within 5–10 years under current trajectories. Governance analysis against Ostrom's design principles reveals fundamental institutional failures, scoring just 46% compliance, with critical gaps in proportional benefit-sharing (Principle 2: 0.5/3) and rights recognition (Principle 7: 0.5/3). Scenario modelling demonstrates that whilst financial interventions (levy, VAT reduction) provide necessary relief, only structural governance reforms—particularly community ownership models, statutory Agent of Change protections, and collective-choice arrangements—can shift the system from degradation to recovery pathways. This integrated SES analysis reveals leverage points invisible in sectoral studies and provides strategic guidance for adaptive governance interventions before irreversible tipping points are reached.

Date: 2026-01-23
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:wxyke_v1

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/wxyke_v1

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