Forecasting drug overdose mortality by age in the United States at the national and county levels

Lucas Bottcher, Tom Chou and Maria Rita D'Orsogna

No yfdj5_v1, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: The drug overdose crisis in the United States continues to intensify. Fatalities have increased five-fold since 1999 reaching a record high of 108,000 deaths in 2021. The epidemic has unfolded through distinct waves of different drug types, uniquely impacting various age, gender, race and ethnic groups in specific geographical areas. One major challenge in designing effective interventions is the forecasting of age-specific overdose patterns at the local level so that prevention and preparedness can be effectively delivered. We develop a forecasting method that assimilates observational data obtained from the CDC WONDER database with an age-structured model of addiction and overdose mortality. We apply our method nationwide and to three select areas: Los Angeles County, Cook County and the five boroughs of New York City, providing forecasts of drug-overdose mortality and estimates of relevant epidemiological quantities, such as mortality and age-specific addiction rates.

Date: 2023-09-28
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://osf.io/download/6511dd591bc865000df372e2/

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:yfdj5_v1

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/yfdj5_v1

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in SocArXiv from Center for Open Science
Bibliographic data for series maintained by OSF ().