Testing Evolutionary Theories of Human Cooperation via Meta-Analysis of Microfinance Repayment

Dugald Foster, Erik Postma, Shakti Lamba and Alex Mesoudi
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Alex Mesoudi: University of Exeter

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Abstract: Explaining how cooperation evolves is a major research programme in the biological and social sciences. In this study we tested evolutionary theories of human cooperation in a real-world social dilemma: joint liability microfinance, in which groups of borrowers must cooperate to successfully repay a shared loan. We used pre-registered Bayesian multilevel models to estimate meta-analytic associations between loan repayment and proxies of four evolutionary mechanisms proposed to support cooperation: relatedness, reciprocity, partner choice, and punishment. A systematic search of the microfinance literature yielded 73 effect estimates for 11 proxies of evolutionary mechanisms analysed in 11 separate meta-analyses. Punishment-based variables showed the strongest positive meta-analytic associations with loan repayment, with mixed results for other mechanisms. However, estimates varied widely in their certainty, with generally high levels of between-study heterogeneity. Our results provide some evidence for evolutionary mechanisms supporting cooperation in real-world contexts, but also indicate there are non-generalisable findings and/or reproducibility issues in the microfinance literature.

Date: 2025-09-19
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:ykfhb_v1

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/ykfhb_v1

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