Population Development In The Roman Empire

Ulrik Vachet Rasmussen

No ys9nu_v1, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: This paper addresses the problem of reconstructing the population development of the Roman Republic and the Roman Empire despite the scarcity, inconsistency, and indirect nature of the available evidence. Its primary objective is to produce a continuous population curve spanning from 508 BC to AD 395, which is internally consistent in the assumptions of underlying growth and other factors over time. To achieve this, the study critically integrates multiple methodological approaches, including Beloch’s area-and-density estimates, Lo Cascio’s revisions, and Scheidel’s demographic critiques, alongside archaeological, economic, and comparative demographic evidence. By combining these methods and cross-validating their results, a coherent framework is established for estimating both population levels and growth rates. It adopts moderate empire-wide growth assumptions, 2-3‰ annually, while allowing for significant variation between core and newly incorporated territories. This enables the interpolation between key chronological benchmarks and the extension of estimates across periods lacking direct evidence. The resulting reconstruction yields a continuous demographic trajectory showing the full consequences of the growth assumptions.

Date: 2026-08-18
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his and nep-inv
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:ys9nu_v1

DOI: 10.31235/osf.io/ys9nu_v1

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