How U.S. Debt and Derivatives Risk Threaten the Dollar’s Reserve Status

Sixbert Sangwa and Placide Mutabazi

No zvf3g_v1, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: Escalating U.S. net-interest payments now rival flagship budget lines and are projected to surpass 4 percent of GDP within a decade, while unfunded Social Security and Medicare liabilities exceed $70 trillion. In parallel, over-the-counter derivatives outstanding approach $700–800 trillion in notional value, embedding opaque leverage that could transmit shocks globally. Purpose: This study probes how the confluence of sovereign debt strain, entitlement promises, and derivatives exposure can destabilize the dollar’s reserve-currency privilege and maps reforms capable of forestalling a debt-driven systemic rupture. Methods: An integrative review of Congressional Budget Office forecasts, BIS derivatives statistics, and peer-reviewed network-risk models is synthesized through a tri-theoretical lens that combines Modern Monetary Theory, Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis, and network-based systemic-risk science. Results: Vector-error-correction analysis reveals that a one-point rise in the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio lifts global derivatives gross-market value by 0.7 percent within two quarters, indicating tight macro-financial coupling. Stress scenarios show that breaching a 120 percent debt-to-GDP threshold alongside derivatives GMV above 10 percent of GDP elevates one-notch downgrade odds to 50 percent within two years. These dynamics threaten confidence in dollar assets, erode the “exorbitant privilege,” and could precipitate non-linear contagion through shadow-banking channels. Conclusions: A coordinated package—gradual entitlement reform, primary-balance fiscal rules, maturity-extension of Treasuries, reinforced CCP cover-two capital, and expanded bilateral central-bank swap lines—can realign fiscal sustainability with financial-network resilience. Infusing policy with a biblical stewardship ethic (“the borrower is servant to the lender,” Prov 22:7) underscores the moral imperative to curb excessive leverage. Timely adoption would safeguard global liquidity, buttress U.S. monetary sovereignty, and preserve the dollar’s hegemonic role.

Date: 2025-10-05
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:zvf3g_v1

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/zvf3g_v1

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