Lessons for COVID-19 from past pandemics: Macro-economic consequences of 1968 H3N2 influenza pandemic in United States

Abdullah Al Saqib Majumder

No n2kd9, Thesis Commons from Center for Open Science

Abstract: Mortality and economic consequences during the 1968 H3N2 Influenza pandemic provide plausible lower bounds for outcomes under the coronavirus (COVID-19). Data for the H3N2 pandemic mortality rate in the United States imply deaths of around 361,000 when applied to current US population. We evaluate the 1968 H3N2 Influenza pandemic’s economic effects in the United States, using annual economic indicator data for the country from 1961-1990. Using excess mortality rate as a proxy for the severity of the pandemic and Vietnam war mortality rate as a proxy for the effects of war, we find that the pandemic is associated with decline in net exports while Vietnam war is associated with decline in unemployment, private consumption and total factor productivity. Our main findings highlight the different nature of war and pandemic and reveals economic mechanisms of pandemic diffusion.

Date: 2024-11-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his, nep-sea and nep-tra
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://osf.io/download/672fb3d6b7291bfed40de20a/

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:thesis:n2kd9

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/n2kd9

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Thesis Commons from Center for Open Science
Bibliographic data for series maintained by OSF ().