Research on the methodology of carbon emission prediction under dual carbon target based on improved gray Markov model

Dongge Zhu, Rui Ma, Jia Liu, Xinghua Li and Jiangbo Sha

International Journal of Low-Carbon Technologies, 2025, vol. 20, 735-744

Abstract: In this paper, a carbon emission prediction method based on improved gray Markov model is proposed. The carbon emission at different times is calculated by the carbon emission factor method, and the cumulative generation sequence is obtained by sequentially overlapping the carbon emission sequences at different times. The state transition state of the Markov process is determined by dividing the relative error of gray prediction results. Calculate the carbon emission prediction value, and take the arithmetic average as the final carbon emission prediction result. The experimental results show that the predicted output result of this method is closer to the actual value.

Keywords: gray GM(1; 1) model; Markov; dual carbon targets; carbon emissions; state transition; relative error (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oup:ijlctc:v:20:y:2025:i::p:735-744.

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