The history and future of AI

Stuart Russell

Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2021, vol. 37, issue 3, 509-520

Abstract: The standard model for developing AI systems assumes a fixed, known objective that the AI system is required to optimize through its actions. Systems developed within the standard model have been increasingly successful. I briefly summarize the state of the art and its likely evolution over the next decade. Substantial breakthroughs leading to general-purpose AI are much harder to predict, but they will have an enormous impact on the global economy and on human roles therein. At the same time, I expect that the standard model will become increasingly untenable in real-world applications because of the difficulty of specifying objectives completely and correctly. I propose a new model for AI development in which the machine’s uncertainty about the true objective leads to qualitatively new modes of behaviour that are more robust, controllable, and deferential.

Keywords: artificial intelligence; rationality; machine learning; future of work (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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