Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century

Robert Barro

The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2006, vol. 121, issue 3, 823-866

Abstract: The potential for rare economic disasters explains a lot of asset-pricing puzzles. I calibrate disaster probabilities from the twentieth century global history, especially the sharp contractions associated with World War I, the Great Depression, and World War II. The puzzles that can be explained include the high equity premium, low risk-free rate, and volatile stock returns. Another mystery that may be resolved is why expected real interest rates were low in the United States during major wars, such as World War II. The model, an extension of work by Rietz, maintains the tractable framework of a representative agent, time-additive and isoelastic preferences, and complete markets. The results hold with i.i.d. shocks to productivity growth in a Lucas-tree type economy and also with the inclusion of capital formation.

Date: 2006
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Working Paper: Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century (2024)
Working Paper: Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century (2006)
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The Quarterly Journal of Economics is currently edited by Robert J. Barro, Lawrence F. Katz, Nathan Nunn, Andrei Shleifer and Stefanie Stantcheva

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