The Monetary Theory of the Trade Cycle and Its Statistical Test

R. G. Hawtrey

The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1927, vol. 41, issue 3, 471-486

Abstract: Experience revealed the trade cycle; deductive explanations followed and were invented to fit the statistical evidence, 471. — The trade cycle is above all a periodical fluctuation in manufacturing activity and in the price level, the two fluctuating together, 472. — Statistical records show the correspondence between the fluctuations of consumers' outlay, prices, and production, while theory has arrived at the generalization deductively, 475. — Monetary theory of the trade cycle suffices to account for periodicity of 7 to 11 years. The sequence of events, 477. — The theory depends upon the connection between currency in circulation and the gold supply; but since the War this condition has not been fulfilled, 478. — Tests of the capital-goods and money theories, 483. — Difficult to find statistical test of the psychological theory, 484.

Date: 1927
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