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Parity in the Exchange of Future Money and Future Commodities

G. P. Watkins

The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1928, vol. 42, issue 3, 366-387

Abstract: The problem and its relation to the supply and demand control of rates of exchange involving future goods, — I. Comparative values of futures and spots in relation to available supplies from crops, 368. — A future trade is an exchange of future money for a future commodity, and does not involve present goods, 370. — II. Indications of a downward bias in grain and cotton futures call for explanation, 372. — III. Bohm-Bawerk's theory of a discount on the future is quite another matter, 375. — IV. But a difference in the relative valuation of money and any specific commodity may be expected according to whether the comparison pertains to the present or to the future, 377. — This situation as expressed in terms of mathematical inequalities, 379. — V. Commercial experience and observation of the comparative value of "immediates," 379. — The downward bias costly to hedge sellers, 383. — VI. Conclusion, — The present article calls attention to a neglected condition, and perhaps suggests a needed addition to theory, 385.

Date: 1928
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