Equity Return Predictability with the ICAPM

Michael Hasler and Charles Martineau

The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 2024, vol. 14, issue 3, 481-512

Abstract: This paper highlights a positive and significant beta-return relationship in high expected market return states, as suggested by the ICAPM. The ICAPM has strong out-of-sample predictive power for equity returns. As a result, timing strategies exploiting this predictive power have Sharpe ratios about double those of the buy-and-hold strategies, alphas of about 5% per annum, and average returns increasing sharply with unconditional betas. Our findings relate to the positive beta-return relation uncovered overnight, on macroeconomic announcement days, and in low inflation times because these periods share an important common feature: high market returns. (JEL D53, G11, G12)

Date: 2024
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rapstu/raae007 (application/pdf)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oup:rasset:v:14:y:2024:i:3:p:481-512.

Access Statistics for this article

The Review of Asset Pricing Studies is currently edited by Zhiguo He

More articles in The Review of Asset Pricing Studies from Society for Financial Studies
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Oxford University Press ().