Official Forecasts and Management of Oil Windfalls

Frederick (Rick) van der Ploeg and Torfinn Harding

No 27, OxCarre Working Papers from Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford

Abstract: Official forecasts for oil revenues and the burden of pensioners are used to estimate forward-looking fiscal policy rules for Norway and compared with permanent-income and bird-in-hand rules. The results suggest that fiscal reactions have been partial forward-looking with respect to the rising pension bill, but backward-looking with respect to oil and gas revenues. Our measure of permanent oil income derived from official forecasts performs better than the one derived from a time-series model of oil income. Solvency of the government finances might be an issue with the fiscal rules estimated from historical data. Simulation suggests that declining oil and gas revenue and the costs of a rapidly graying population will substantially deteriorate the net government asset position by 2060 unless fiscal policy becomes more prudent or current pension and fiscal reforms are successful.

Keywords: oil windfalls; official forecasts; forward-looking fiscal policy rules; permanent income hypothesis; graying population; debt sustainability; Norway (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H20 H63 Q33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009-10-14
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Related works:
Journal Article: Official forecasts and management of oil windfalls (2013)
Working Paper: Official forecasts and management of oil windfalls (2012)
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