Dealing with potential bias in early estimates of GDP

Robin Youll
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Robin Youll: Office for National Statistics

Economic & Labour Market Review, 2008, vol. 2, issue 7, 48-52

Abstract: Considers why this has occurred and the ONS response to reducing the potential for such bias in futureHistorically, Office for National Statistics (ONS) early estimates of the growth of the volume of gross domestic product have tended to be revised up on average. This article considers why this has occurred and ONS's response to reducing the potential for such bias in future. It concludes that there is insufficient evidence for ONS to make an explicit aggregate level adjustment to these early estimates to anticipate potential future bias, and that there are many more fundamental reasons why it should not make such an adjustment. Instead ONS should continue to research the reasons for any bias, and seek to reduce or remove it altogether. Economic & Labour Market Review (2008) 2, 48–52; doi:10.1057/elmr.2008.105

Date: 2008
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