Understanding the quality of early estimates of Gross Domestic Product

Gary Brown, Tullio Buccellato, Graeme Chamberlin, Sumit Dey-Chowdhury and Robin Youll
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Gary Brown: Office for National Statistics
Tullio Buccellato: Office for National Statistics
Graeme Chamberlin: Office for National Statistics
Sumit Dey-Chowdhury: Office for National Statistics
Robin Youll: Office for National Statistics

Economic & Labour Market Review, 2009, vol. 3, issue 12, 43-50

Abstract: There has been considerable attention paid in recent months to Office for National Statistics early estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). These estimates provide a timely indication of the evolution of the economic cycle, and there has been particular interest in their reliability, given the potential for theestimates to be revised.This article describes the context in which the offi cial estimates of GDP are produced, and examines the reason for revisions to early estimates. It goes on to discuss how these revisions can best be analysed over different maturities of the estimates and points out some potential pitfalls. Based on this discussion, itoffers guidance on the best approach to understanding the revisions cycle and for interpreting the published information on revisions.The article then presents the results of analysis of a new real time database for GDP growth in the UK, which contains a time series of estimates back to 1961. Over the period since the mid-1990s, revisions have been much smaller than previously, perhaps reflecting the relative stability of the economy over this time.The article concludes by discussing the issues surrounding the use of bias adjustments for GDP.

Date: 2009
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