Discontinuity analysis affecting the 2006 ABI employee estimates

Jon Gough
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Jon Gough: Office for National Statistics

Economic & Labour Market Review, 2009, vol. 3, issue 12, 74-77

Abstract: Three changes to Annual Business Inquiry/1 were introduced to the 2006 survey which resulted in a discontinuity when comparing with previous years. This also affected Workforce Jobs (WFJ) estimates for employment as these fi gures are benchmarked against the ABI for certain sectors of the economy.An impact assessment to measure the discontinuity has been completed. The main proposal, for users requiringa consistent time series, is to amend the back series for ABI/1 onto the new method. This can be done using link factors produced from the 2006 ABI/1 estimates on both the 'old' and 'new' methodology.The overall discontinuity was estimated at 417,000 employees in a downward direction. The retail, real estate, education and health sectors were the industries affected the greatest.The discontinuity for WFJ benchmarking is estimated to be 203,000 jobs in a downward direction. This is lower than the overall discontinuity because WFJ is not benchmarked to the ABI for all industries,and also because the change in reference date does not impact on WFJ due to benchmarking against the third quarter (September) estimates as opposed to the fourth quarter (December).

Date: 2009
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