Can China and India be Growth Drivers for Developing Asia&quest

Rashmi Banga () and Dinesh Kumar
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Dinesh Kumar: Centre for WTO Studies, New Delhi, India

The European Journal of Development Research, 2013, vol. 25, issue 3, 367-384

Abstract: India and China are two Asian emerging economies, the unprecedented growth of which have led many to argue that in the face of slowdown in growth of the North these emerging economies will act as the new growth drivers for the South. However, not much empirical evidence is available to support this argument. This article estimates the growth linkages between the developing Asia and the two Asian emerging economies in terms of co-integration and causation in their growth rates. Both short-term and long-term relationships are tested between growth of China and India with growth of the developing countries of Asia for the period 1970–2009. The issue of whether these countries can provide market for the South is also examined. The results show that whereas China has acted as a growth driver for the developing Asia, no empirical evidence of this is found for India.L’Inde et la Chine sont deux pays asiatiques émergents dont la croissance sans précédent laisse penser à beaucoup que, dans le contexte du ralentissement au Nord, ces économies émergentes agiront comme de nouveaux moteurs de croissance pour le Sud. Il existe cependant peu de preuves empiriques à l’appui de cette thèse. Cet article propose une estimation des liens de croissance entre l’Asie en développement et les deux économies asiatiques émergentes, en termes de co-intégration et de causalité entre leurs taux de croissance. Nous testons les liens, à court et à long terme, entre la croissance de la Chine et de l’Inde et celle des pays d’Asie en développement sur la période 1970–2009. La question de savoir si ces pays peuvent constituer un marché pour le Sud est également examinée. Les résultats montrent que la Chine joue effectivement le rôle de moteur de croissance pour l’Asie en développement, mais qu’il n’existe aucune preuve empirique que l’Inde joue le même rôle.

Date: 2013
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