Possibility versus Probability: The Rhetoric of Choice

Peter Earl and Bruce Littleboy

Chapter 4 in G.L.S. Shackle, 2014, pp 51-83 from Palgrave Macmillan

Abstract: Abstract This chapter begins an exploration of George Shackle’s unique approach to understanding and modelling choice. What is the future but the void? To call it the future is to concede the presumption that it is already ‘existent’ and merely waiting to appear. If that is so, if the world is determinist, then it seems idle to speak of choice. (Shackle, 1972, p. 122) For Shackle, dreams spur deeds. The cascading consequences of our genuinely creative choices bustle and tumble to fill the void and form our future. According to Ford (1993, p. 694), Shackle most wanted to be remembered for his theory of decision-making. Ford (1985, p. 10) observed: ‘It has obviously been a source of disappointment to George Shackle that his own theory has had virtually no impact on the profession. It is only now that his work is being acknowledged … ’ Sir Charles Carter (1993, p. 129) hopefully proclaimed: ‘My theme … is that new minds are needed, to take what is valid from Shackle’s profoundly original contribution of 44 years ago, and to achieve a revolution in economic thinking which is still awaited and still needed.’ Our ambition is slightly more modest. We aim to explain the merits of Shackle’s position and to show how it may dovetail with some contemporary theorizing. We consider here Shackle’s rhetorical strategy and the informal aspects of his arguments, the intuition, analogies and the like.

Keywords: Mathematical Expectation; Rational Expectation; Mainstream Economic; Perfect Competition; Crucial Decision (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:gtechp:978-1-137-28186-9_4

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DOI: 10.1057/9781137281869_4

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