Technological Forecasting

E. Mansfield

Chapter 15 in Methods of Long-term Planning and Forecasting, 1976, pp 334-349 from Palgrave Macmillan

Abstract: Abstract The past decade has seen a spectacular increase in the amount of attention devoted to technological forecasting by social scientists, management scientists, and others involved in R&D planning, industrial management, defence problems, environmental protection, technology assessment, and a host of other areas. Books and articles in considerable number have appeared on the subject.1 New journals devoted entirely to this subject have been born.2 Firms and research organisations specialising in the subject have sprouted in various parts of the United States-and the world. Given the impressive amount of activity in this area, the time seems ripe to survey and appraise what has been going on. In particular, what is meant by ‘technological forecasting’? What sorts of techniques and models have the technological forecasters developed? How accurate are these techniques and models? To what extent are they used? What are the problems and defects in existing techniques and models, and how can they be improved? My purpose in this paper is to answer these questions as best as I can within the space available.

Keywords: Delphi Method; Project Selection; Commercial Aircraft; Technological Forecast; Trend Extrapolation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1976
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:intecp:978-1-349-02649-4_15

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DOI: 10.1007/978-1-349-02649-4_15

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