A War-Economy Theory of the Long Wave

Joshua S. Goldstein
Additional contact information
Joshua S. Goldstein: University of southern California

Chapter 12 in Business Cycles, 1991, pp 303-328 from Palgrave Macmillan

Abstract: Abstract Long waves of roughly fifty years in economic and social life have intrigued many scholars because they offer an alternative perspective from which to view history and the present situation - an alternative to either static or linear projections of the future. Past empirical studies of long waves have agreed on the dating of long waves historically but not on the scope of those waves in terms of variables encompassed, relevant time-periods, or causal mechanisms (see review in Goldstein, 1988: ch. 3). I have sought to advance the empirical evidence relevant to long waves by sorting and testing conflicting hypotheses in the long-wave debate against about fifty historical time-series (Goldstein, 1988). Based on the most salient lagged correlations among variables found in my empirical analysis, I adduced a set of causal dynamics among variables that could account for the sequence of phenomena making up the long wave - as best that sequence could be inferred from spotty empirical data. The adduced theory is a tentative one, with many remaining loose ends and anomalies. But it is better-grounded empirically than past longwave theories.

Keywords: Real Wage; World System; Causal Dynamic; Causal Arrow; Robust Economic Growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1991
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:intecp:978-1-349-11570-9_12

Ordering information: This item can be ordered from
http://www.palgrave.com/9781349115709

DOI: 10.1007/978-1-349-11570-9_12

Access Statistics for this chapter

More chapters in International Economic Association Series from Palgrave Macmillan
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().