Money International

Robert Pringle
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Robert Pringle: Central Banking Publications

Chapter 7 in The Money Trap, 2014, pp 107-122 from Palgrave Macmillan

Abstract: Abstract Consider the sweeping changes transforming economic geography. Assuming recent trends are maintained, between 2011 and the mid 2020s China will grow from being about half the size of the US or euro-zone economies to being about the same size as they will be, and the output of emerging markets in aggregate could be twice as large as that of the US or eurozone. Looking further ahead, on current trends, by 2050 India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico and Indonesia will be among the top 10 economies, ahead of Germany and the UK (Brazil overtook the UK in 2012!). Rapid shifts in capital from one part of the world to another will also be sparked by changing perceptions of credit risk, as the government bonds of many western countries lose their hallowed ‘risk free’ status, and as investment opportunities open up in different parts of the world. The potential for collisions between mutually inconsistent policies during such a period of turbulent change is obvious.

Keywords: Exchange Rate; Monetary Policy; Central Bank; Exchange Rate Regime; Flexible Exchange Rate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:palchp:978-0-230-39275-5_7

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DOI: 10.1057/9780230392755_7

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