Forecasting Malaysian Business Cycle Movement

Shirly Siew-Ling Wong, Shazali Abu Mansor, Chin-Hong Puah and Venus Liew

Chapter 4 in Emerging Markets and Financial Resilience, 2013, pp 51-60 from Palgrave Macmillan

Abstract: Abstract For years, economists have sought to summarize the visual evidence of cyclical oscillation in economic series to learn the characteristics of such cycles in real macroeconomic settings. The existence of various business cycle conceptions indeed shared a single objective, that is, to strengthen insight into the underlying thoughts behind recurring ups and downs in economic activity (Burns & Mitchell, 1946). However, the cyclical fluctuations in economic activity hardly follow a predictable pattern, as the size of expansion and contraction deviate across periods, each turning point in the business cycle presents certain crucial information that contains indications on future changing phases of the economy. Also, development in leading indicator analysis persuasively suggests that combinations of sets of leading series to form a unique composite index is generally better than any single series in explaining the cyclical movement.

Keywords: Business Cycle; Cointegration Test; International Financial Statistics; Economic Series; Reference Chronology (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:palchp:978-1-137-26661-3_4

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DOI: 10.1057/9781137266613_4

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