From Throwing the Dice to Grasping Brownian Motion

Elie Ayache

Chapter 5 in The Medium of Contingency, 2015, pp 103-145 from Palgrave Macmillan

Abstract: Abstract The reason I became interested in Kolmogorov and his formalization of probability is that I came to believe that the market, once it is reinterpreted as a derivatives market with the corresponding concept of price, is a radical alternative to statistics.1 It is only because price is confused with a number and the price process is confused with a time series that statistics are thought to be applicable to the market and that the notion of random generator is thought to exist in the market. But, once it is remembered that statistics is only an interpretation of the probability formalism, the space is open to envision the market as a radically alternative interpretation of the formalism and, for this reason, as a radical alternative to statistics. As form, the formalism doesn’t know matter. So, here the idea is to think that statistics is one way of appending matter to the formalism and that the market is another. The market is literally a new matter, to be contrasted with the material die or generally the material device (even abstract) that is supposed to generate the statistical population.

Keywords: Brownian Motion; Trading Strategy; Random Generator; Winning Strategy; Derivative Price (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:palchp:978-1-137-28656-7_6

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DOI: 10.1007/978-1-137-28656-7_6

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