Do business and consumer confidence in China respond to energy-related uncertainty? A quantile-based analysis

Assad Ullah, Jiang Chen (), Meiping Sun, Adeel Riaz and Mesut Dogan
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Assad Ullah: School of Economics and Management, Hainan Normal University
Jiang Chen: School of Economics and Management, Hainan Normal University
Meiping Sun: Department of Economics, Fordham University
Adeel Riaz: School of Economics and Management, Hanjiang Normal University
Mesut Dogan: Bilecik Seyh Edebali University, Vocational School of Bozuyuk, Turkey

Palgrave Communications, 2025, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract China’s transition from fossil fuels to clean energy to attain environmental and economic co-sustainability necessitates changes in its energy policy landscape. Such policy shifts impact the confidence of both businesses and consumers. Building on this argument, this research article investigates the response of China’s business and consumer confidence towards energy-related uncertainty for the period February 2000 to October 2022. Utilizing a novel energy-related uncertainty measure and the quantile-on-quantile regression approach, the empirical analysis underscores that China’s business confidence is hostile towards energy-related uncertainty across all quantiles. The quantiles of consumer confidence mirror the outcomes of business confidence, recording the negative impact of energy-related uncertainty, except for a few quantiles. The empirical outcomes indicate that to augment business and consumer confidence, Chinese policymakers should strive to minimize energy-related uncertainty through transparent communication with stakeholders and a gradual shift from fossil fuels to clean energy sources.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1057/s41599-025-05300-1

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