Modeling Potential Flood Occurrence under Climate-Related Variables in Kilifi Coastal County, Kenya

Eline Nyiransengiyumva (), Richard Adade (), Noble Kwame Asare () and Precious Agbeko Dzorgbe Mattah ()
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Eline Nyiransengiyumva: University of Cape Coast, Centre for Coastal Management, Africa Centre of Excellence in Coastal Resilience (ACECoR)
Richard Adade: University of Cape Coast, Centre for Coastal Management, Africa Centre of Excellence in Coastal Resilience (ACECoR)
Noble Kwame Asare: University of Cape Coast, Department of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences (DFAS)
Precious Agbeko Dzorgbe Mattah: University of Cape Coast, Centre for Coastal Management, Africa Centre of Excellence in Coastal Resilience (ACECoR)

Chapter Chapter 17 in The Blue Economy in African Coastal Communities, Volume I, 2026, pp 417-435 from Palgrave Macmillan

Abstract: Abstract Among all natural disasters, floods pose some of the greatest economic and social challenges worldwide. Their frequency are projected to rise due to changes in key flood-predictor variables, with low-lying regions such as Kilifi in Kenya being particularly vulnerable. Increasing flood occurrences in these areas also threaten the sustainability of the coastal blue economy. This study aimed to analyze and predict flood occurrences in the Kilifi coastal area, influenced by climate-related variables, from 1990 to 2023. Time series techniques, including the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, correlation matrix analysis, and linear regression modeling, were employed. The results indicated strong positive correlations between flood occurrence and climate-related variables, suggesting that increases in temperature, precipitation, sea-level rise, and river discharge are associated with heightened flood frequency. Projections indicate that flood events may increase to 11 per year by 2050. This paper provides valuable insights into future flood risk management and improves the understanding of flooding dynamics in Kilifi.

Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:psmchp:978-3-032-25364-4_17

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-032-25364-4_17

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