Dinámica de precios relativos y régimen liberal

Gloria Canales and Alan Fairlie Reinoso ()

No 1997-133, Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers from Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú

Abstract: This paper shows that there is an important dispersion in relative prices in the Peruvian economy instead of deflation, and we present an explanatory model about that dynamics. One of the most important implications is that the exchange rate has a crucial importance in the explanation of inflation. This is a consequence of the liberalization process of the nineties. So, the exchange rate appreciation would be a fundamental element to explain the deflation. Other central implication is that the exchange rate appreciation affects the exporters’ revenues, increase his wage costs in dollars and his “public” and financial costs. The competitiveness of our exports is seriously damaged, especially industrial exports and, this process limit both the possible boom in exports in the future and a solution to the external restriction. The liberal regime would be a transition regime. If the results of our estimations are correct, the consequence of an overshooting policy in a context of economic dollarization, could trigger the most important crisis of the last fifteen years (financial, inflationary and balance of payments).

Pages: 51 pages
Date: 1997
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