Forecasting on the long-term sustainability of the employees provident fund in Malaysia via the Box-Jenkins’ ARIMA model

Sallahuddin Hassan and Zalila Othman

Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), 2018, vol. 14, issue 1, 43-53

Abstract: This study employs the use of Box-Jenkins’ ARIMA (1,1,0) model for the estimation and forecasts based on the annual data of EPF balances, which serve as a proxy to EPF sustainability, together with the yearly data of possible determinants namely investment earnings, nominal income, elderly population, life expectancy and mortality rate in Malaysia for the 1960 – 2010 and 2010 - 2014 periods, respectively. Amid a negative sentiment and conceivably bleak outlook on the long term EPF inadequacy to provide adequate incomes to elderly persons, the prognosis of this study instead reveals otherwise and is found to be in support for the long term prospect and sustainability of the EPF. With necessary improvements are underway to strengthen the performance of the administered EPF system, it is likely to believe that the EPF organization is committed to promoting its product as a more inclusive and equitable scheme in Malaysia.

Keywords: ARIMA model; EPF; forecasting; long-term sustainability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E27 G23 H55 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://academicpublishingplatforms.com/downloads/ ... y_ARIMA_pp.43-53.pdf (application/pdf)
https://academicpublishingplatforms.com/volume.php?journal=BEH&id=3&number=30 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pdc:jrnbeh:v:14:y:2018:i:1:p:43-53

DOI: 10.15208/beh.2018.4

Access Statistics for this article

Business and Economic Horizons (BEH) is currently edited by Orifjan Namozov, Ph.D.

More articles in Business and Economic Horizons (BEH) from Prague Development Center Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Jaroslav Holecek ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).