An empirical analysis of the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis in the Philippines

Richard Ballester and Joy Sinay
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Richard Ballester: National Economic and Development Authority
Joy Sinay: National Economic and Development Authority

Philippine Review of Economics, 2013, vol. 50, issue 1, 83-110

Abstract: We reexamine the relationship between growth and exports of the Philippines for the period 1977Ð2009 using the methods of Sharma and Panagiotidis [2005] and Feder [1983]. With the shift in the current economic policy toward inclusive growth, we find it necessary to assess if indeed the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis really worked for the country. Specifically, our research investigates the cointegration of exports, imports, and output using the Johansen cointegration test and the Breitung cointegration test; the Granger-causality between exports, investments, and output; and the impact of macroeconomic shocks by employing a vector autoregressive model. In summary, we find that the ELG hypothesis appears to be empirically unsupported for the Philippine case. Classification-E20, F10, F41, O11, O24

Keywords: export-led growth hypothesis; Breitung cointegration test; vector autoregressive model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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