COVID-19 vaccination in Sindh Province, Pakistan: A modelling study of health impact and cost-effectiveness

Carl A B Pearson, Fiammetta Bozzani, Simon R Procter, Nicholas G Davies, Maryam Huda, Henning Tarp Jensen, Marcus Keogh-Brown, Muhammad Khalid, Sedona Sweeney, Sergio Torres-Rueda, CHiL COVID-19 Working Group, COVID-19 Working Group Cmmid, Rosalind M Eggo, Anna Vassall and Mark Jit

PLOS Medicine, 2021, vol. 18, issue 10, 1-20

Abstract: Background: Multiple Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines appear to be safe and efficacious, but only high-income countries have the resources to procure sufficient vaccine doses for most of their eligible populations. The World Health Organization has published guidelines for vaccine prioritisation, but most vaccine impact projections have focused on high-income countries, and few incorporate economic considerations. To address this evidence gap, we projected the health and economic impact of different vaccination scenarios in Sindh Province, Pakistan (population: 48 million). Methods and findings: We fitted a compartmental transmission model to COVID-19 cases and deaths in Sindh from 30 April to 15 September 2020. We then projected cases, deaths, and hospitalisation outcomes over 10 years under different vaccine scenarios. Finally, we combined these projections with a detailed economic model to estimate incremental costs (from healthcare and partial societal perspectives), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for each scenario. Conclusions: COVID-19 vaccination can have a considerable health impact and is likely to be cost-effective if more optimistic vaccine scenarios apply. Preventing severe disease is an important contributor to this impact. However, the advantage of prioritising older, high-risk populations is smaller in generally younger populations. This reduction is especially true in populations with more past transmission, and if the vaccine is likely to further impede transmission rather than just disease. Those conditions are typical of many low- and middle-income countries. In a modelling study, Carl A B Pearson and coauthors investigate the health impact and cost-effectiveness of various COVID-19 vaccination scenarios in Sindh Province, PakistanWhy was this study done?: What did the researchers do and find?: What do these findings mean?:

Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pmed00:1003815

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003815

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